Sunday, November 27, 2011

What a Storm! Deep Cut- Off Low to bring Rain, Winds, Snow To South

The models have been showing a developing deep "cutoff" low for a while now and its developing now. Heavy rain will pull up from the Gulf across the Southeast Sunday and Monday, reaching the western Carolinas late Monday. Some impressive rain totals will occur in northern GA and the mountains of NC with this, possibly topping 5".  Meanwhile cold air will wrap around the low and rain will change to snow in Memphis and western Tennessee and northern Mississippi on Monday, and spread deeper into Mississippi and northern Alabama by late Monday night.
The cold air will wrap completely around the low in Mississippi and Alabama overnight Monday night and a snow band will likely spread across central and northern parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia by Tuesday morning, possibly even producing a few flakes in the western Carolina foothills and western Piedmont by Tuesday afternoon as the cold core aloft comes directly overhead. By then snow will be falling in the mountains of TN and NC as the system begins to pull north into the MidAtlantic (rain there), but snow for the mountains.  A very unusual system, and will likely go down as "historic" with standard deviations 4 to 5 SD below normal.

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