Major Storm in Deep South/Southeast Heavy rain/Wet Snow for some

I could keep on waiting for the runs to keep coming out but the trend is fully back to a cutoff. And maybe further west than the Miss. River but for now I'm settling on around MEM or TN/MS border region, possibly beginning in central Arkansas. As the low cuts off it will continue to tighten and strengthen up, and actually grow colder at the core. However this is still not a really cold cutoff, and the further west it cuts off, probably the warmer it would be, the further east in the TN valley, the colder, thanks to having a longer connection with the northern stream before pinching off.  This is going to be a very big deal.  Its' not often we get 4 or 5 contours closed off this far south.  The GFS seems to have had the right idea nearly a week ago, and pretty much all the ensembles and ops. have settled on a lower Miss or Tn. Valley strong cutoff that could pinwheel for acouple of days if not more.
The models are frequently too quick to move a cutoff (think Sept. Ohio Valley deep cutoff that sat a week). But for now, it appears we're in for a strong southerly fetch against a strong, very sharp trough that creates exceptionally good lift and a tap with the Gulf, so thunderstorms and severe is possible but I haven't seen too much of the severe parameters. Normally a cutoff in this location will funnel heavy but sort of narrow band that trains over the same areas, and that looks to be straight up through Alabama and western GA into Tenn. curving back into a developing axis of deformation. On the northwest side, precip may get an extra lift later on all th way to the Ohio River and southern Illinois.
The rain will probably come in atleast a couple good bands each producing a couple of inches for part of GA and Al, and the western Carolinas. Dynamics weaken further north but later on the storm could phase with another incoming trough, in which case the whole system would strengthen, and become a major snow maker for inland Northeast, but thats very far out.
As the cold air aloft begins to wrap on the west side, then rotate under the 850 low around MEM, rain may change to snow in central Ark, northern Miss even down to central Miss, nrn La and spread into western Alabama later on if the core of the lowest heights go toward the Tenn. River Valley and then southern Apps region.  Time of day and precip rates will mean everything since we're dealing with marginal air and climo this time of year, but usually strong cutoffs of this caliber are capable of dyamic cooling down to the surface (even in daylight if heavy enough), but can vary tremendously from one city to the next. This could be a situation where at one point its snowing in Jackson Mississippi and raining in Nashville.  And then snowing in Nashville but raining in Pittsburg. Depends on the location of the core and the wrap around moisture and precip rates.
Another major aspect will be the rain totals and rainfall rates. The models are pretty widespread and heavy through the Tenn Valley and probably not quite heavy enough in the Apps.  If it cuts off too far west, that would reduce the totals for the southern facing Apps of northeast GA and western NC, but with the ensembles and most models showing the nature, location and orientation of the 3 to 5 contour cutoff, easily flooding type rains could be a problem esp. if it comes at rates like .50" an hour for 6 plus hours, which is very possible in one or more of the heavy bands that rotates through.
I think most have seen what strong cutoff lows are capable of, and keep in mind the models and soundings and such aren't gospel..these things do strange things all the time. And this particular one is one of the strongest I've seen modeled this far south. I'm sure there's been others but not lately, and not in the Deep South, and not at this time of year.  Anything is possible and I'd bet the models have a trick up their sleeve yet, for example, possible phasing with another wave later next week if the system hangs around very long in the South. Or the system may end up further west, which would mean it won't be as cold core, so very little snow at all.  This is my best call for now.  I'm finishing this up and the 00zNAM is in. Nothing really to change my mind except to re-iterate, this is going to be a very big deal across the South. Lots of rain, hour to hour vast weather changes, and from city to city in the same state. If you like interesting weather, this should suit you on many levels. And for the snowlovers, as long as the models don't begin getting warmer with the cold intrusion, I think a surprise snow report will occur Sunday night , Monday or Monday night into Tuesday "somewhere".  As always, have fun with this storm! Its' been a blast to follow all week long.