What's the Chances of a Very Deep Snowstorm this Winter?

With the two minor snow events already in the Deep South, and in between the warm spells and record high temperatures, and all the rain in the Tennessee Valley and western Carolinas, I'm hearing rumors. Some are the cries of the death throws of Winter already, some are that it's too wet. Pick your poison. It depends on where you are in the South.  I have spent a great deal of time studying old weather patterns and specifically, for Shelby and points in western North and western South Carolina, all signs are pointing me toward a very increased chance at an unusually deep, major, rare mega-snowfall this season in our area.

To put things simply, the country, especially the Deep South and Ohio and Tennessee Valley region, are in the midst of an extremely active weather pattern. I've looked at old synoptic weather charts and I honestly don't see any comparison to what we're currently enduring. Time and time again strong upper lows or major "cutoff" storms are swirling through the South land and occasionally up the East Coast.  We have been very wet here around Shelby and the mountains of NC and especially wet on the other side of the Appalachians this Fall and now into December.  You have to go back to 2003 to find a comparably consistent wet year for most of Cleveland County, where it was consistently "wet" or atleast average. And that says something about our long term drought, especially in upper South Carolina and southern Rutherford and southern Cleveland County. Yet we've been at the center of many major weather events all year long, and if you're a snow lover, here's some news:   We've had 3 above normal snow years in a row. The last couple of seasons have been pretty easy to forecast well in advance, but this current season is much more tricky.  We don't have sustained cold, and we don't have Gulf lows tracking our way. However, we do have many, and I mean many upper lows that are "cut off" from the main flow. And as we're heading deeper into the colder months, already we are seeing signs of those swirling cutoff's drop snow. Its happened twice now in the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians, and its' not even Winter!  If you go back to some of Shelby's biggest snowstorms lately, they mostly come from strong upper lows. February 2004 and March 2009 (yes there is a huge gap between storms) were both strong upper lows that tracked in the right spot.
If you do the math, our odds are upped in a MAJOR way this year, simply because of the shear numbers of these systems that are in the flow. And there's still no end to them. The GFS model, which has been far superior in our neck of the woods this year (ever since just after the Christmas 2010 storm) continues to hone in on these things. They're still lined up as far as the eye can see, and just when the models try to overdevelop the warmth in the Southeast (yes we can get a day or 2 of above normal), the storm comes through and keeps temps cold, pulls down the colder air and turns rain to snow in spots.
The bottom line is the pattern this Winter is very ripe for a major, once in a lifetime, snowstorm in some spot of the South. It's impossible to nail down where this will track at this point, but it could be anywhere in the Southern states, and Shelby lies right in the heart of it.  As we get deeper into Winter, and have access to colder and colder air, one of these strong upper lows will pass directly along interstate 85 or Interstate 40, and place the Western Carolinas squarely in the throws of a Foot-Plus snowstorm...the kind that brings down trees and knocks out power. 
So while it appears we're not in a sustained cold spell like the previous two Winters, we have a tendency for troughing and very deep troughs and cutoffs in the Southern US this Winter, and in particular the western Carolinas seem to be in a wet pattern. There's no guarantee a major snow-dumping storm like this hits our area, but the odds are probably increased dramatically this year over any other year I can recall, simply because of how the pattern has been, and how it keeps repeating. It may happen in December, January, February or even March. Perhaps not at all for Shelby proper, but the odds do favor us.  I also noticed that during general overrunning events of the last decade of Winters, our area doesn't do quite as well in snowfall accumulations, however during strong upper lows and cutoffs, we do extremely well. Think February 26, 2004 and March 1, 2009...both were strong cutoffs in a very benign year. Based on what I'm seeing in the pattern this year, despite long range generic forecasts for our area, I have to say with strong conviction that we are heading toward a tree-smashing, power-thwarting, roof-collapsing whopper of a snowstorm. You've been warned.

Feb 2010 storm Satellite

Odds Are Higher Than Normal For One Or More Major Snowfalls In the Deep South This Winter, Thanks To Numerous "Cut-off and Upper-Lows"