Monday, June 27, 2011

Strong to Severe Heat Wave Next Weekend Across the South

Weather factors are lining up to produce the hottest Heat Wave so far this season in areas of the Carolinas to Mid Mississippi Valley region. From St. Louis, Memphis, across the Tennessee Valley to Atlanta and Charlotte the region will come under a strong building High Pressure aloft. The GFS model, which has been blowing away the European version for the last couple of seasons, shows strong signs of this heat wave arriving late Friday and really expanding in the red shaded region this weekend.
Some areas near the Mississippi River will have extreme low level moisture to go along with the high heat, making conditions unbearable.
A deadly combination of extremely high dewpoints and extremely high upper air temperatures, in addition to the perfect placement of the closed 850mb and 500mb closed ridges, all point to a very dangerous heat wave. The model even has low temperatures failing to get below 80 or 82 degrees at night in parts of the South, and has heat index (feels like) temperatures of over 116 to near 120 degrees in parts of Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky , western Tennessee where the extremely high dewpoint air will make conditions feel miserable. Air conditioning is a must have for survival in conditions like this, so please check on the elderly and pets during the day time, and stay as cool as possible. The actual temperatures on either Saturday, Sunday or both should top over 100 degrees on a widespread basis in this region (outside the higher elevations of the mountains), and nighttime will offer very little relief from the horrid heat and humidity.  The heat wave should work back west early next week and a strong northwest flow will bring slightly cooler air to the region.

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