White Christmas on the Way - - This could be a Big one.

 The Short of it: All models trended back to a look similar to the European Model of earlier in the week. Its going to snow. A LOT in some areas, but can't pin down exact areas, but for Shelby I'd expect 6" or so with the possibility of it being much more. It should begin around noon or so and really get heavy by dark. Good snow rates overnight and I won't be surprised to hear thunder around here in the middle of the night with good dynamics overhead.  By sometime on Sunday it should wind down, but with the upper system closing off on top of us, its hard to say when it really ends. Usually our snows don't last much past 12 hours or so. We'll see.


More Technical Discussion Below:

On the RUC, its becoming obvious I think that this southern stream system isnt' going to bypass us to the south. Long story short, on the last panels you can clearly see full phase and negative tilt shortwave trough well west into Louisian and southern Mississippi. If the RUC is right, a tremendous explosion of moisture is going to expand over Alabama, all of GA, eastern Tennessee, and all the Carolinas by late Saturday. A good bulk of the southeast. Surface low should begin sudden dropping and bombing in the Northeast Gulf tomorrow evening, spreading very heavy snow from eaastern Alabama across Atlanta ( should be start as rain, quickly to snow due to evap cooling and intense rates) and just west of Columbia and Fayetteville, up to RDU . The snow shield will become an axis of heavy rates along the northwest flank, roughtly I-85 corridor and as the low deepens to near 1000 mb around the Florida panhandle, the extreme divergence and cold conveyor belt processess will create heavy banding with Thundersnow possible near the immediate north side of the dissolving phasing Vort, probably near ATL and western SC. As the low deepens into the 995 mb or so along the coast of Georgia , the axis of heavy snow is covering most of the Carolinas and eastern Tennesse (i'm going further west based on RUC and trends), while the eastern sections near the coast have rain and sleety/ mixing will get close to 95 over night, but all heavy wet snow just west of there and the inverted trough is already showing up along the Savannah River Valley for the Upstate and Foothills/western Piedmont, where the inflection point and upper dynamics cause stationary bands of heavy snow all night. An 850 low develops in western South Carolina which usually creates high snow fall rates as well through cyclonic pva aloft and excellent dynamics (thundersnow possible)
By morning, the snow may still be going if the 5H cuts off over the Tennessee Valley, meanwhile this stalls and deepens the coastal along the Outter banks, or possibly just inland. Extremely heavy snow for eastern Carolinas at that time, with winds increasing, and any areas that changed to rain or mix, go back to heavy snow. The storm deepens and slowly crawls the coast as a blizzard.
Snow totals should be hefty and even some accumulations near the Florida border is possible. Some areas of the piedmont and coastal plain of Georgia and the Carolinas probably are going to exceed 12"

This is the most dynamic setup for the Southeast as far as snow and wind potential in a long time, and some analogs are January 22, 1987. Its rare to have a 500 mb system cutoff so far south, see a phasing of the streams, negative tilt trough possibly, and experience snow rates and a "bombing" low so far south, but thats what appears to be on order.
Drive safe, make plans now to be snowed in a couple of days in some areas. The cold comes in with a vengeance afterwards, but looks like a warm up is on the way by middle of next week.