Heavy Snow Rates Likely Tonight all over Western North Carolina

General Discussion:

For the Cleveland County region and immediate surrounding counties, especially into the foothills, the snow rates tonight look pretty impressive for a while. They may get to 1" per hour at times between Spartanburg, Shelby Hickory and Forest City, and even Charlotte, and as far west as Asheville. The low will be deepening while still in the northern Gulf and crossing Florida, and throwing plentiful moisture across Alabama, Georgia and the western half of the Carolinas for a while. Once it gets started this afternoon, the snow is going to really start coming down and the surface temperatures should bottom out near 32 or so.  Accumulations can be anywhere from 3" to as much as 10" if you're closer to Asheville and Hickory where the snow got an early start.  It should snow all night and end sometime Sunday morning.

Technical Discussion:

The RUC continues to come in each run with more moisture and better dynamics. By 5 pm or so, the southern vort in the deep south is converted into PVA and cyclonic flow aimed at north GA and the western Carolinas should cause an expansion of heavy snow rates. After dark the development of weak 850 low looks likely underneath good divergence in the lee of the Apps, where stationary banding and mesoscale forcing under cyclonic 850 flow against the foothills should enhance snow rates to some areas seeing 1" per hour rates at times.  The comma head is tilting the whole time as the coastal low begins taking shape and by morning whats leftover in the western Carolinas will by dying a slow death. All in all, the area may be the last to end the snow shower activity, but should come to an end starting in the morning.  Its impossible to say where the most snow accumulations will be, but widespread accumulations overnight under the region bound by GSP AHN CLT AVL HKY regions looks like 4 to 8" except possibly more along 40 and in the mountains, especially in the central NC mountains near Bumcombe and western Rutherford. Some areas could top 12".