Christmas Snow, but how much?

All models trended west tonight, after losing the big Christmas snowstorm. The weather forecasts have a huge bust potential on this one because of many reasons. Right now we are just getting better sampling into the radiosonde network but it will take until Friday morning before the northern stream is captured better, and thats the tricky part.
By 36 and 48 hours from this writing, the northern stream is going to be coming very close to the low that is coming off the Texas coast, and this has been the crucial deciding point all along: Does the northern stream capture and phase with the Gulf low, or does it squash it? We still don't know and won't until more time becomes available. The trends tonight though leave the door wide open from everything to scattered flurries here to several inches of Snow, starting Christmas morning. The general idea is , the futher east you get into the Carolinas, the better the chance at real significant snow, but this doesnt' mean that the western Carolinas are totally out of the range of a potential big snow. There's a pretty big chance that the gulf low will get swept up into the Florida panhandle and then start deepening rapidly and we'll have to see just how strong it gets and its exact path before we can know how much snow, and where.

Above are the American and Canadian models valid Saturday Evening 7pm. The waves we're watching in the northern stream are circled and could be the catalyst for sudden storm development in the Gulf.

I'll put out another update after lunchtime on Christmas Eve. Merry Christmas!