There is a close call, as close as it gets in the meteorology world. The European model now doesn't phase the two streams needed for the big snow it was showing, until a few miles too late. All models now have different solutions and its a sign that this pattern is chaotic.
By Friday, the Texas storm is weakening and is being affected by the northern jetstream but here's where we can't say for sure what happens. Do the two pieces of energy merge and form one big storm in the Southeast or Gulf states?
Right now, most model trends say no. The way it looks it will happen is that the northern stream will usher in a strong cold front early Saturday for the Western Carolinas and that may be accompanied by a dying band of moisture (snow flurries or light snow) or that moisture could totally evaporate which is much more common in this setup. Meanwhile the Gulf low is waiting on the next piece of northern stream energy , and if it digs far enough south to merge with the Gulf low, then we'd have a big storm coming up the Southeast coastline, but right now thats probably not likely. Instead it would like just be a weak low grazing the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas, with light to moderate snow, posssibly good accumulating snow in eastern NC, and then the storm heads out to sea, only to recurve back inland somewhere in the Northeast later on. We'd be left high and dry, but cold.
Its really going to be a waiting game to see how the actual solution plays out. Its possible none of the models are handling things properly around eastern Texas and Louisiana area. That is going to be the crucial deciding point for areas in Georgia and the Carolinas inland sections. But I have to say the odds have gone down tremendously on getting any accumulating snow here on Christmas Day. But we have to keep watching this one, as it could be ripe for surprises at the very last minute.
Whatever the weather, Have a very Merry Christmas!
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