The king weather model, the European model, continues to remain adamant about an unusual perhaps once in a Hundred year event. For 3 full days now its insisted on an Historic Southeast Snowstorm of almost unmatched proportions. And it begins Christmas Day. All the other computer models have been catching up to this solution as well. Theres several key players that are all poised to come together to create this rare opportunity:
1) An historic blocking signature in Canada, which is perfectly placed to create a split in the flow
2) A strong storm system coming into southern California right now will take the southern track and
3) The southern storm will join forces with a strong northern system over the Gulf Coast region: This is extremely rare but has happened to some degree for example March 1993 "the Superstorm of the Century" which buried northern Georgia and the Appalachians
4) Unusually cold air aloft and extreme dynamics in the upper levels, which again is incredibly far south thanks to the forcing from the historic blocking going on over the continent.
In a nutshell, there is going to be a strong Southeast snowstorm, but at this time the exact track can't be pinned down for certain. However, we have enough information to believe that much of Georgia and the Carolinas will see an accumulating snowfall that will grow very intense and very far inland as the storm begins to deepen off the Georgia coast.
The snow should begin in the western Carolinas northern Georgia by around midday on Christmas Day. Overnight Christmas Night the storm will begin to "bomb" which is a term usually only associated with Nor'easters that affect New England. Sunday looks like a very snowy day in the Carolinas. The beaches or coastal plain may experience a change to sleet or mix briefly, depending on if the storm cuts just inland. At one point, this storm is poised to drop barometric pressure down to 975mb while located near the Outer Banks of North Carolina, which would be a true blizzard for the eastern half of the state I believe. The upper low cuts off over the southern Appalachians mountains which could stall the storm and pull it slightly more inland. This is a strong possibility with such a meridional flow in the atmosphere.
Make plans now in case this already dangerous looking storm gets any stronger than forecast. There could be downed trees, and power lines from the weight of the heavy snow and high winds in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Following the storm, very cold air will usher in and the snow will not melt very fast. The region could come to a virtual standstill. The storm looks like it will continue to crawl up the East Coast and some areas are going to get a record snowfall from this.
As far as snow amounts: its too far out to predict. In short, I'll say "a lot" is likely. I'll give more updates as needed on this developing situation.
Here is an animation depicting what the European Model is suggesting: I'd expect minor deviations but this is a rough idea beginning with Christmas Eve and ending the Day after Christmas.
Grteat write up Robert!! Looks like you think the precip might be a little underdone for North GA per the models.
ReplyDeleteGood job, Robert. I used your post here as an update on my site here in SC. I made a link to your site on my navigation bar. As always, you're my go-to weather source.
ReplyDeleteThanks for all you do.
Hal
Love your site Robert. I'm hoping to see my first white Christmas in my 44 years.
ReplyDelete