DROUGHT to be the Buzzword Next Several Months

Could the city of Shelby be facing a water crisis over the next 6 months? Could be.  As the developing "La Nina" cycle is gearing up and growing stronger, all across the Southeast and East Coast, already the weather patterns have responded with many states being much drier than normal for the Summer.  In particular, for Cleveland County, we're no strangers to drought.  The upper parts of the county have been hit with rains this Summer, but by and large, the the bulk of Rutherford and Cleveland County are well below normal in rainfall. This is especially true in the same areas that keep getting hit with long lasting droughts, around the southern edges of Cleveland and Rutherford County.

So far, less than a quarter inch of rain has fallen in the southern and western stretches of Cleveland and adjoing Rutherford Counties.  And those same areas are also the lowest in rain amounts for the year so far, with  between 25" and 30" of rainfall this year in those areas, while between 35" and 40" has fallen in western Rutherford County and the northeastern part of Cleveland County--a huge difference, but one that seems to be commonplace this decade.  Normally, looking at the 30 year average rain map, we're all about the same, however the theme for this decade is a much dryer southern half of both counties, thanks to the new flow regime of northwest winds.

You can see this year the northern mountains in NC, and Tennessee, as well as the Upstate region of SC down to central South Carolina, as well as eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia are in a growing dry spell, however the long term drought's hardcore region continues to batter a general area from western South Carolina and along and just northwest of the Interstate 85 corridor to near Shelby .  As you get into the Charlotte and Hickory region, the "drought tangent zone", the effects of Summertime convergence yields an area of much increased rainfall for that area.

The rivers and wells are responding quickly around the Spartanburg to Forest City and Shelby areas now, having received very little rainfall this Summer and now with a long dry September. In fact, the remainder of the month looks dry, barring an incoming tropical system, which still looks ulikely. (However the last few days of the month could open the door to a hit).

Last 12 years have seen steady decline in the ground water. The exception was a wet 2003 area-wide. The small blip in beginning of 2010 was the El Nino, which ended in early Spring. 

 

Take a look at this groundwater well near Spartanburg. Its history goes back to the early 1990's, and you can see normally you only had to go to about 36 feet below ground to get water, then in 1998 things began changing abruptly and almost every year since then the new depth to hit water dropped to near 48 feet below ground surface, meaning the water level had dropped an astonishing 12 more feet.  Its no coincidence in my drought study that incorporates data from the 1998 to 2002 "Super Drought Years" and up until now, that a small area from around upper Spartanburg County to southern Cleveland County is around 10 to 12 FEET below normal in rainfall during this time. In other words, that small area of real estate has been Dead Center of the longest lived drought region I could find in the data going back over 100 years. No other time span in our lifetimes have a long lived drought right in our back yards, that even comes close to what we're experiencing now.The area south of highway 74 in Cleveland County is between 10 and 12 feet below normal in rainfall since 1998...over 120" of rain that should have fallen, hasn't.

In fact, many wells in South Carolina are heading toward the lowest points, the result of not only this current dry spell, but the cumulative effects of many years of drought in succession.  If the current "La Nina" behaves as normal, then the ground water will continue to drop steadily through the Autumn months and reach near-reocrd lows.  Also, the stream flow in much of the East continues to decline.  In our own First Broad River, the source of Shelby's drinking water, the river is running only around 11% capacity around Casar, NC and the Jacob Fork River in South Mountains is even lower, running around 9% of normal.

Back in October 2002, when the First Broad River nearly evaporated completely, it was the result of an extremely dry Summer over the entire western North Carolina region, and the cumulative effects of nearly 4 straight years of widespread below normal rains. However, only the future will show just how quickly we could get to that point again. I think its safe to say that given our long term dry spells that Cleveland County has endured, if the headwater region in Upper Rutherford and Cleveland County continue to be dry, it won't be long before the rivers respond with much lower water output. Indeed, they are already responding.

The gage at Big Broad River continues to drop as well. Since water records at the gage house began there in the 1920's, an astonishing 6 years of the top 8 years of the lowest river flow in Boiling Springs have all occurred in the last 11 years
Here are the lowest annual river flows at Broad River in Boiling Springs, NC:  Clearly, the long term drought along the headwaters of the River is taking its toll.

Lowest River Flow (discharge in cubic feet per second)

8.  2009    867 feet
7.  1999    850 feet
6.  1955    805 feet
5.  2000    793 feet
4.  1988    767 feet
3.  2001    627 feet
2.  2002    578 feet
1.  2008    538 feet

Here are the lowest instantaneous Gage Heights itself:

(1) 0.38 ft on 09/10/1925
(2) 0.80 ft on 07/23/1926
(3) 0.88 ft on 10/27/1931
(4) 0.98 ft on 08/12/2002
(5) 1.21 ft on 08/21/2007
(6) 1.33 ft on 06/21/2008


I walked across the Big Broad River at the Boiling Springs Greenway in the Summer of 2008, without getting a toe wet.  Below is a picture of another river-goer, doing the same thing:

During the 2002 drought, Shelby's faucet's began to run dry, with the city depleting almost all the First Broad had left to give. It nearly ran completely dry, but a burgeoning "El Nino" wetter pattern was about to start up in October and arrived just in time to offer a reprieve.  I'm afraid, considering the long term record droughts that Cleveland County has already endured, if the area as a whole were to go through another widespread, strong drought year, then we'll be seeing pictures like this again very soon. (Courtesy Shelby Star)

I'll keep monitoring the rainfall situation and keep my readers abreast of the latest rainfall chances , as well as issue a Winter Outlook by the end of October. Until then, all we can do is pray for rain and make the best of our resources and plan our future's river and water supply very judiciously. The weather patterns have shifted to a long term basis, not just a blip of an occurence anymore, so the new data that comes out soon regarding the 30 year average rainfall for the area will show a massive drop, especially in Shelby's official numbers.