Major Rain Event Looking More Likely Starting this Weekend, and Next Week

The three big models ECM, GFS and GGEM are all big rainmakers for the Southeast, especially Georgia and the Carolinas, and again under the ULL. The 00Z and 06Z GFS are really big deals, both in their placement of the ULL and the features that deliver the big rain. First, starting Saturday night the front slams on the brakes as winds back, and the front will be a strong focus across the central and western Carolinas to north Ga with the first band of stationary, training cells that likely would go on until and through part of Sunday. Then, as the ULL begins to take shape, new moisture will be pulled into the Southern Apps and the high over the Northeast will aid moisture banked right into the spine of the southern Apps. As this high heads offshore next week then stays put, tropical plumes will get pulled into and wrap around the ULL over most of the Southeast and with a decaying front, the on top of the southern Apps, inverted trough near the Apps or just west, and a strong Bermuda high that is stationary (per GFS for several days) all point to an extreme rain event. This is before any organized tropical system gets infused.
Then later next week, depending on where and if the cutoff is still in tact, tropical moisture would get pulled up the East Coast somewhere, likely the central and eastern Carolinas, which would yield a big rain event over a large region. This could help many in the drought regions. From western Kentucky, to eastern Alabama , then up the East Coast, if the cutoff materializes as planned.

Most models (shown is GFS) drop a strong cutoff low west of the Apps,and meander for days.