Hurricane Season 2010 Getting Active Now (Updated Aug 29, 2010)

Several named storms are imminent in the Atlantic. "Danielle" was a CAT 3 but is no threat to the Atlantic Coast. "Earl" however needs to be watched closely for the Outer Banks this week, but still most models take it northward just off the Atlantic Coast, but we'll definitely continue to monitor it's track.

After "Earl", a developing "Fiona" looks like it will pose a threat to some part of the Southeast or East Coast in about 9 or 10 days from now. The ECMWF model runs have been bringing a powerful Hurricane "Fiona" into the South Carolina coast, and each new run shifts the impact zone somewhat, from Florida to North Carolina. The cone of error this far out in hurricane modeling is huge, so more deviations in track can be expected.
The exact location of her landfall (even if there is one) will be determined by the Bermuda High location, and if a north-central Atlantic trough can "tug" on her some, helping pull it further north. Most models tug at it briefly but the trough is too far removed to pull it completely northbound into the Atlantic, like Danielle. This would leave Fiona on a course for the Southwest Atlantic Ocean, a track just north of Puerto Rico and possibly threatening that Island, as well as the Bahamas and eventually the Southeast Coast from Florida to the Carolinas. There is no definitive forecast yet for her. I'll monitor the latest guidance and post here when her track becomes clearer.

Previous run of ECMWF model hit SC in 10 days

the 00Z run of the ECMWF 8-29-2010 shifs Fiona south and hits Florida, versus old run hitting SC