Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Snow? Not Much, Flurries Possible

The trends for the Shelby area of NC are for little to nothing from this "storm". Its not a good setup for moisture , however we do have the cold air. Its similar to Clippers , where moisture comes east toward the Mountain Chain, then a hole opens up in the downwind /Leeside areas around interstate 85 from GSP to CLT regions, then the precip attempts to fill in again as it heads toward the coastal Plain.  All models now have this look, and unless they are missing the strength of the system, I wouldn't expect much around this part of the Carolinas. However, big snows are coming for Arkansas, Mississippi, and Oklahoma over the next 36 hours, before the system begins weakening rapidly as its dynamics really fade fast approaching our area. Its possible some spots around the foothills and western Carolinas wring out a few flakes overnight Wednesday Night and early Thursday morning, but don't expect to be stranded or snowed-in like previous storms...this one just doesn't have much going for it. Bad timing with the upper level features, bad orientation, there's no gulf moisture tap, weak moisture advection...on and on. Its looking like a rare case where it snows to our west, north, east and south...but not much here.
All models have a "hole" over our area, indicative of lack of precip. Snow all around this area is possible.
The good news is a warm up is slated for next week. The pattern is changing and this Historic Cold Winter, one of the Coldest on record,  (not to mention a very snowy one in the Southeast) is coming to an end soon. However as we enter late February and early March, there are signs that some Greenland Blocking will build again...this is the same paradigm that led to our early Winter cold and snow, and if it does form, then late Feb and early March could turn cold and stormy one more time before Winter finally lets go. We'll see!

No comments:

Post a Comment