Wednesday, February 9, 2011

A little snow overnight

At this point, this is a tricky one. Most models have a snow shadow on this side of the mountains, placing Shelby squarely in the middle of little to almost no snow. In a nutshell, this is an unusual setup, so its hard to say. Its not the classic Gulf low bringing in moisture over our cold air, instead its an upper disturbance that will be lifting to our north, and transferring energy to the Carolina coast overnight and early Thursday morning. However, all the models have been blowing the actual weather observations to our west, and already I'm seeing signs that Shelby will indeed get some snow, but its literally impossible to say how much . At one point I thought flurries was probably the best we could pull out, but looking at the latest trends, I'm re thinking that. I'm NOT calling for a big deal though, like areas of Arkansas where 10 to 20" of snow fell. Simply put, if the moisture holds up for 8 more hours like I think it will, we'll get atleast a period of light snow, but there's always the chance the moisture will literally vanish and dry up totally right at Cleveland County's doorstep. Just don't know. On the flip side, there's a really outside chance that a lee trough could enhance the effects of snow banding during the overnight hours, and quite a surprise would result from that, but thats an extremely unlikely outcome, I only mention it because a couple of models show something similar to that happening, and its actually happened just once before that I can recall in a similar setup.

For now, I'm expecting light snow to arrive near midnight in the Shelby area. Give or take a couple of hours, and of course with our proximity to the mountain chain and the way the precip is coming at us, it makes it hard to nail down a time before the Virga begins reaching the ground.  The snow could continue for about 4 to 6 hours and then be done around daybreak or so.  The afternoon should feature sunny skies.  Total accumulations could range anywhere from a dusting to an inch.

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