There is plenty of time to watch the trends on this. It could trend into just a front (which would bring in even colder air) - or this could trend into a major storm if things were drop a little further south and get a low developing in the Gulf. It appears whatever falls would be snow with enough cold air at all layers of the atmosphere. All we can do now is watch and wait and see if anything comes of this "potential".
Happy new year!
For those of you more interested in a more detailed discussion , heres my post on a weather forum I frequent:
Next week's event could either become a much bigger deal or shear out like the op GFS, it's still too far out to say with any certainty which way. I do like the amount of ridging on both GFS and ECM and that will be a very crucial part for how far south the wave can dig, and depending on the PNA ridge tilt, would affect the wave's digging ability. More ridging in the west, would equal more digging for our trough, esp. with a eastern Canad vortex, which is the other piece to the puzzle. It should act to keep the wave digging much like the ECM is showing and allow the 5H upper low to begin to develop some more moisture as it hits the Plains, in addition to what moisture is already brings with it.
For the Southeast crowd, you want as much digging in the Rockies as far west as possible, but technically not *too much* as that would actually cause the warmer air to creep further north than shown and bring the rain/mix/snow lines with it. Not enough digging, or a sheared out look like GFS, and it's going to be a dry arctic frontal passage with just flurries and snow showers west of the Apps.
Right now ECM has been pretty consistent on a middle ground, with a light to moderate snow event across Ark, Ok and the Plains, spreading east and tapping some Gulf moisture, the ECM may be underdone just lookng at the 5H look, with excellent divergence over the Tenn Valley region. If the 5H low were a little more south of its prog location, a better Gulf low would emerge and something to watch in future runs. As it stands now, the snow line is roughly Jackson-Birmingham-Atlanta-Columbia and points north, but any more warming aloft or a warm nose would cause mixing or snow to mix/rain in those locations, just can't say this far out obviously. The ground will be nice and cold/frozen, so what falls should stick immediately. The QPF amounts are at the max of .25" to .50" over much of central Alabama up to very northeast section, most of western and northern Ga, adjacent to I-85 to GSP and points west including eastern third of Tenn, and all the Apps. Verbatim, would be a nice coating of several inches of snow. Amounts taper less east of the Apps. Cold follows the storm, possibly extremely cold.
For the Midatlantic or Northeast, you don't need as much digging and ridging out west, and the models have this close enough and still far out, that it could actually be further north, I wouldn't be surprised at all, b/c there have been numerous storms in the last few years progged to hit the Southeast, and each successive run saw a further north trend. Going against a too far north solution is the suppressive action of the eastern Canada vortex, but timing means everything. If it stays put, a further south low like ECM emerges, if it lifts out, plenty of room for the 5H feature to be further north (but wouldn't have as much moisture thanks to less gulf tapping). Would however, possibly develop a stronger coastal near Outer Banks of Chesapeake.
Still a few more runs, and I'm sure each model will swing back and forth to the amplified nature of whats going on. Its possible this 5H could dig even more, develop a western Gulf low, and run northeast from there with an entire east Coast major snowstorm, similar to last March, but colder. Nothings carved in stone.
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