The Sunday storm is taking shape just to the north of NC, and will scrape the East Coast from DC to New York and Boston, with a quick hit of heavy snow. Behind this Sunday night and Monday, here comes very cold air (one ingredient missing here for the Sunday storm). The cold air will hang around most of the week, laying the groundwork for our first truly significant chance at a REAL Winter storm.
An upper low is forming as I write, over the Southwest. Cold air is dumping into the Eastern half of the country. By Wednesday morning, a low pressure will be developing in the Gulf near the Texas coast, and will suddenly get booted toward the Southeast later Wednesday night and into Thursday. Most models agree on this idea, except one is being much slower with it. Our temperatures will be cold through Wednesday with Arctic high pressure, so you'll want to tune back in by Tuesday or Wednesday to see just exactly when I think the moisture begins to arrive.
Right now, it looks like snow to start, even very far south toward Birmingham and Atlanta around midnight Wednesday night, and the snow arrives in Shelby by sunrise Thursday morning. The biggest question is just how warm do our upper temps go during the day Thursday. It appears we will change over from snow to ice, but by the time that takes place, we could have already had a few inches of snow. Remember, the ground will be cold, so the snow should accumulate rapidly, and right off the bat. It's too early to make a solid call for just how much in accumulations, but this has looked like a major Winter Storm for several days now, and since we're within 4 days now, the likelihood it actually happens is pretty high. Still, there are too many details to iron out, but I can be more specific as we get closer.
Beyond this Thursday storm, extremely cold air will dump into the entire nation from the Rockies to Florida...with more storm chances not far away. The cold air could rival our cold spell that started this year, when Shelby dropped to 10 or 11 degrees. Throw an arctic airmass like that on top of what could be fresh snowcover, and it really creaks the bones. Brrrrr.
**********MORE UPDATES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES***************
Great write up!! As you write...I learn. Electricity is my game, not meteorology. I know that without a power source, the light bulb won't come on. I try to put that into the context of weather systems. As it stands right now, all we have is a partial circuit. Anyway, lolol, I wanted to let you know that I look for your input. I can't wait to see your next write up. Thanks (GaffneyPeach)
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