How Much Snow Saturday?

Here's an idea of just how tight the gradient will be with this snowstorm in the area: There's almost no middle class, you're either rich or poor. Taken literally and assuming a 10 to 1 ratio, this map shows Shelby at around 2 to 4", while just down the road from Greenville, Spartanburg and Charlotte get 5" or 6". Theres a possibility of 8" or more in some areas that are lucky enough to get under an extended duration heavy snow band....very very close to our area.

First off, thanks to ATT/Bellsouth inability to properly install phone and DSL service, my connection is spotty at best. The culprit I believe is ice/water in the customer access panel, which ironically, I can't access. Beautiful. I'll update while I have atleast this temporary connection.

A good rule of thumb that works "most of the time" for western North Carolina, especially the Shelby area, is that if precip is over northeast Texas and southern Arkansas, then we'll get it. Well tonight the radar shows precip breaking out in that general area, and is actually just a little further north and west than what the models forecast. But there is a time for every rule to be broken, so I can't promise this to be an I-85 special...one where we see Athens getting snow is no guarantee it will make it here. But in the past, it usually worked that way.

The Saturday storm has the potential to drop over 6" of snow, or none at all, for Shelby. In general, there will be a solid line of moderate, maybe even heavy snow just along Interstate 85, from Atlanta toward Charlotte and Raleigh. North and West of there, there will be an extremely sharp drop off...a matter of merely 20 miles from several inches to almost none. It's impossible to nail down where the band sets up. Here's a good radar to watch overnight and in the morning to get a better idea of the trajectory.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?radar_us+/2h/

The radar may be misleading, though, giving either false hope or even causing snow lovers to throw in the towel. Something tricky happens during Saturday, a 300 mb jet strengthens right over the Southeast and the models respond by pulling the moisture shield for a north jog right as its near northern Georgia..so I'd expect precip to pull north to a degree once its approaching us at the last second. I don't know if it will be enough to generate a steady moderate band, but the potential is there, and it looks like this will come down to the wire....simply watching the radar tomorrow morning. Extremely frustrating to be 12 hours away from a potential big snowstorm, and not even be able to say for sure we'll get 1" or 10". The gradient is just that tight. Most likely, the southern and eastern part of Cleveland County gets more than the north and west. This means a rare instance where Grover and Kings Mountain get a little more than Polkville and Casar. How often do we see that?

But....BUT BUT BUT, if the heavy shield trends only 30 or 40 miles northbound, which isn't much when youre dealing with a giant mass of overrunning moisture, then we'd be squarely into the throws of a major snowfall. All of us across the southern foothills and piedmont. Just don't know at this point.

I'll update again tonight, if my internet holds up. Good luck to all you snow geese.

Don't worry about temps, once precip falls, we'll drop to 32. However, if the snow is never moderate enough, we really won't drop much lower than mid 30's until later afternoon. The heavy falling precip is what will actually keep our temps down and allow accumulation. Either way, temps plunge into the lower 20s late Saturday night and likely not above freezing on Sunday.