Thursday, August 11, 2011

Unsettled, Showery Weekend- - Damper on Perseid Meteor Show

The Perseid meteor shower will be at peak early Saturday morning, but unfortunately this time we have a full moon that will drown out all but the brightest trails. Even without the moon's intereference, in the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia, this year is pure bad timing because it appears the weather will also not cooperate. We'll have a high pressure to our north, and its location almost certainly dictates an easterly component to the surface winds. Now the GFS model is clearly showing showers, sprinkles or at the very least, a totally cloudy sky overnight Friday.  It's possible the onshore flow that banks the clouds and light rain into the western Carolinas is going to be much weaker than advertised, but usually an east wind with moisture in the air is indicative of a fairly cloudy sky. Still, its worth looking out late Friday night or early Saturday just in case some breaks appear.
Showers and storms really begin to crank up late Saturday night as a pattern change gets underway. A deep trough will carve out into the Ohio Valley and Eastern States by Sunday and Monday, and help usher in our first dry airmass since last Spring. It will be a welcome relief with dewpoints dropping into the 50's for the Carolinas and Georgia, and actual temperatures will be more tolerable as well. Since the air is going to be so dry, our nighttime temps Monday night and Tuesday night should be able to get down into the 60's in the piedmont and possibly even the 50's in the foothills of the Carolinas and Virginia. The mountains may even touch the upper 40's...a true taste of Fall.
Friday night surface map from GFS...barbs indicate east winds, green colors portray areas of rain.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the rains, which are always welcome since we tend to lean on the dryside as of late.

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