Where Will the Snow Be this Week?

The big question now is what is going to happen? Before we get to that, here are some tidbits on this Winter so far:  The Meteorological Winter begins December 1st and ends Feb. 28.  So basically in the Southeast, there are 3 months we watch for cold, and snow and ice chances, and already the last 7 Weeks have delivered. Its been a top 5 coldest Winter so far for many Southeast Cities officially, and for a few, the snow and ice amounts make it close to a top 5 year, primarily in coastal Carolinas, and parts of Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina.
Coming up is NO END IN SIGHT for the cold air for us. We can see pretty clearly the writing on the wall, we're going to stay cold and get colder over the next 10 days to 2 weeks, so by then we're into February, and the long range shows the strong Ridging out west remaining, so you can infer the cold (or atleast no above normal) air should still be ongoing through mid February. That only leaves 2 weeks for us to have potential "above normal" temperatures.  All this to say, the Winter Outlooks many of us issued in October and November are a failure. They went warm and dry. However, the dry part is fairly accurate (so far). Even though it has seemed wet, its not. We are pretty dry in the Carolinas.

Since Dec 1st
GSP  2.85"
CLT  2.71"
AVL  2.56"

RDU  3.22"
FAY  2.15"
GSO  2.87"

AHN  4.22"
ATL  3.49"

However, a strong Gulf low is about to form and should throw some decent rainfall up into the Southeast starting Monday night and especially by Tuesday. After the upper low has made a complete cutoff over lower Alabama, then the moisture shield should really explode over Georgia and the Carolinas overnight Tuesday. By then, colder air working into the Tennessee Valley and cold air being generated from the low Height Field should allow the rain to begin changing to wet snow in the northwest shield of the storm over Tennessee, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama and extreme northern Georgia. The models are still varying on the track once it comes out of Georgia. Some take it up the Appalachian Chain, which would place the NC and TN mountains in more rain, others take it to the coast which opens the door to allowing the 5H feature and 850 low to pinwheel in a very similar fashion as the March 2009 storm...right up 85. However, this storm isn't nearly as cold aloft, so I'm not calling for snow in the lower elevations east of the NC mountains. But areas from the Mountains and west, I feel pretty safe that it will happen. Its too early to start talking amounts yet, until we nail down a precise track, and if and when the rain may change to snow in the Carolinas east of the mountains on Wednesday. At some point Wednesday, we *could* see a switch to heavy, wet snow, or it could remain just a cold rain. Too tough and too close to call for certain. Upper level lows are sneaky and alwyas have tricks up their sleeves. I'll fine tune the map later.