Bomb or Bust

UKMET at 72 hours valid Monday Evening

The models are in 2 camps: one, there is a weak storm but no big deal.  The GFS and other poor models are in that camp.  The vast majority of the models, the ones that have correctly called our Winter Storms so far this year, (and last year, and the year before, and the year before, ...) like the GGEM, ECMWF and UKMET are on board for a big storm arriving in the Western Carolinas staring around Tuesday morning.  The cold air at the surface and aloft will be here to start the storm, but there is a question on how much warming takes place during Tuesday afternoon and overnight Tuesday night. We'll need more time to figure it out, but I'm leaning toward a large, heavy wet snowfall in northern Georgia, and most of the western Carolinas and southern Virginia and much of eastern Tennessee, as well as northern Alabama.  I'll continue to monitor the track and trends of the models and this storm over the weekend with updates.  As always with our storms, we practically have to wait until it begins to know for certain how it will play out, but I try my best to give a good early warning, and right now the setup favors a Major Winter Storm in Charlotte and points west....an "Interstate 85 Special"