Thursday, February 11, 2010

Snow Chance is Increasing for Friday afternoon

Earlier in the week, we thought the low in the Gulf would stay supressed, well supressed. For the last couple of days the models have been steadily bringing this storm further and further north. Now, All of North Carolina is in atleast some snow, and the futher south you go, the more you get.  Already snow is breaking out to our southwest and Dallas, Texas has set a new snow record at over 7", with more yet to come. There's still more questions than answers on this, but one thing I do know is we WONT be dealing with sleet and freezing rain this time--whatever falls will be pure white snow for the entire storm.
The big question is how much? Honestly it could be as low as a dusting, but being an el Nino Winter, and the fact that every storm has been a soaker (or dump of white if your near Washington DC), and further north than shown, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Shelby pull over 4" from this storm. But a broad brush safe call would probably be just 1" to 3" for our area, but if radar trends continue to show a further north movement and models come in tonight even further north, then amounts would only go up.
The snow will fall all the way to Atlanta, and even further south, with record - breaking snows in Montgomery, Columbus, Macon and Columbia, even all the way to Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. Yes, this is an extremely unusual situation, but one I called for back in September with my Winter Outlook. We just had to wait on the perfect timing, which is hard to get in this part of the state.
Cold air and moisture arrive again by Monday, with more snow chances then. The cold pattern looks to stay around a while, with anomalous blocking at the higher lattitudes near the North pole, and an energetic southern stream to boot--a rare treat for the southern United States.
Here's my initial forecast on snow amounts: Take with a grain of salt. Click the map to enlarge!

The Forecast for Shelby and vicinity:

Snow developing Friday afternoon. Snow continues Friday night and ends early Saturday. Highs Friday mid 30's, lows Friday night in the mid 20's.
Highs Saturday upper 30's.
Snow amounts could range from  a trace to 4".

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for your thoughts Robert. Hoping we continue to see a robust radar moving ene and increase in returns over our area..
    Good call and good luck with it...

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