3 PM Update

Snow and sleet are being reported over much of Upstate SC and northeast Georgia now, and will be in Shelby by 5 PM or so. The models have underestimated the speed and now looking at rapid update cycles on the computer runs, they're growing colder aloft. Once again the synoptic setup is tricky for Shelby and then entire highway 74 crew. We are literally on the line for everything tonight , from snow, sleet, freezing rain and plain rain. The atmospheric column is very much isothermal, meaning that there is almost neutral temperature advection, and what hits the ground is going to be a function of precipitation rates. No doubt it begins as snow and sleet, and then it waffles between the 2 types. At this point, I still can't call for accumulations on the grass for certain, as our low level temperatures could stop around 32 or 33, or even 34, but as the night wears on, we should drop to right around 31 or 32 in the immediate Shelby metropolitan area. The upper parts of Cleveland and most of Rutherford County will be about 1 degree colder, and aloft that makes a huge difference, as snow is likely to continue longer there.
As for a bad freezing rain icestorm, I don't think that will be the case in Shelby. You need 30 degrees or lower at the surface to really make the ice accrue, and I don't think we get to that temp. However, further west toward Asheville, Hendersonville, Lake Lure and Marion, I think temps drop down to upper 20's overnight, with a devastating ICE STORM for most of the western Foothills region.
The models have a tremendous amount of precip, once it starts...it doesn't stop until some time late Friday night, or early Saturday. Then it could switch to snow flurries.
We walk a tight line between a major winter storm, to a cold rain.It's literally impossible to draw the line on this one.