Late Week could get Wintry

All the computer models have been showing a scenario that places Tennessee and North Carolina on the northern edges of a winter storm. But its still too early to say if it actually occurs, or if a north trend begins.  Here's how it plays out according to the European Model (the best model for predicting weather in the 3 to 5 day range).
A strong cold front comes into the eastern states and slams on the brakes just south of us later Wednesday night and early Thursday. Meanwhile, a "split" Pacific flow sends a strong low into southern California and heads it slowly east bound toward western Texas. This used to be a recipe for our traditional snowstorms, but honestly lately we have got our big snows by other means, but in general, a "split" flow was one where the cold air came in from the northern jetstream flow, and a storm rode steadily along in the southern flow, and where the two mixed, you had a snowstorm. Those were the days.

This one begins to take shape Thursday for the southern plains around Oklahoma, and Arkansas, but begins quickly spreading precip eastward. By Friday morning, a strong storm could be developing, or atleast a lot of moisture pooling into the cold air over Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky where heavy snows are likely, but stratified east to west, meaning the further south you get, the more the precip is rain. Light rain will probably reach the western Carolinas late Thursday night, except light snow likely for the higher mountains and especially the northern Mountains around Boone. 
Meanwhile, the upper levels as well as the lower levels of the atmosphere slowly cool throughout the day time on Friday, thanks to a developing high pressure that dams in the western Carolinas. Heres where it gets tricky.
The European model is very close to turning us over to snow here in Cleveland County, but other models are too warm aloft, and change us to sleet and freezing rain.  Its rather odd to have the European model as the coldest one, as it is usually more reliable at this range, and we can't get a bonafide snowstorm anymore, can we?
Either way, some wintry precip is likely beginning from the north and working south through the day Friday and Friday night, ending early Saturday.

Bottom line, its too close to call here in the Shelby area and all along highway 74 from Charlotte to Asheville. The further north , the more snowier it appears, however whereever the transition zone lies, thats where the heaviest snow totals will be. All models paint a lot of moisture totals over us, so if it were snow, that would be a lot of it. But thats just an "if" for now.

Stay tuned for further updates on this developing situation.