After viewing all the models tonight, I'm convinced its been many years since the Southeast has dealt with a winter storm like this one. Overall, we have a deepening gulf storm that will track along south Georgia and deepen already to 998 millibars (thats deep !) by Friday night, meanwhile cold dry arctic air will be funnelling in at the surface. Temperatures across Cleveland County may hit mid 30's early Friday, but once the precip begins falling fast enough, they will drop into the lower 30s and the sleet will be mixed with snow at times.
Right now our County lies directly in the middle of the snow and sleet lines. And on all the models! Its hard to say for sure there will be all snow in one section and all sleet in another, but most likely, we all go back and forth between the 2 types, and more snow for the upper end, more sleet for the southeastern sections.
By Friday night, the upper low will be traveling up Interstate 85, usually when this happens, a wall of heavy snow breaks out. Just like last March 1st, with large fluffy flakes falling fast as can be. All this morphs into a slow moving coastal storm by Saturday morning, and we' have several disturbances passing overhead to keep flurries in the air.
By then, most of western NC will be buried under quite a bit of snow and sleet, and if you really want to step into deep snow, you may want to head to Hickory, Morganton or Lenoir areas Thursday. Those areas look cold enough at all layers of the atmosphere to be all snow, and I think the totals will go over 12" there.
The winds will pick up Friday night, and I can't rule out thunderstorms along and near I-85 with strong vertical velocities traveling overhead.
Its possible that the atmosphere is a little bit colder than forecast..usually thats the case in a Gulf low/Damming High situation for our area, but its been so many years since this setup you can't say for sure. All I can do is monitor the trends on Thursday model runs.
Another update later Thursday. Get ready now!
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