Winter Storm Overnight Wed. Night/Thurs. Morning

A look at the surface winds during the day Thursday...notice the north and northeast winds, keeping areas like Shelby, Forest City, Hickory , Morganton and Asheville below freezing until the storm is over. Usually, in cold air damming situations, we're the last to go above 32°, meanwhile areas all around us begin to warm slightly to near 32 or 33° to our south and east.

The models continue to develop a gulf low and pull moisture over top our cold air beginning late Wednesday night. It looks like snow will be falling from the skies after dark Wednesday, but probably won't reach the ground in Cleveland County until around 9pm til midnight, somewhere in that range. Look at the low dewpoints that precede the storm here. This map shows just how dry our air will be, with temps in the mid 30s at start time, and dewpoints around 10 or 12°. This means virga, snow not reaching the ground until saturation occurs. You'll want to watch the radar later Wednesday evening to get a better idea of when the snow arrives. Click here http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?radar_us+/2h/

After the snow begins to reach the ground, our low dewpoints (and the location of the surface high pressure in New England) assure us of going down into the middle 20's after midnight. If the snow falls heavily enough, then there will be accumulation. Right now, its still to uncertain how much moisture makes it up into Western North Carolina. Some models paint 2 to 4" over our area, but it's best to be conservative until we can see where the heavy band of precip moves in Alabama and Georgia.

Meanwhile, don't look for the snow to last very long, the upper levels will begin slowly warming and change the snow over to a period of sleet and then freezing rain around daybreak Thursday. Again, it depends on how much moisture we can get into as to how much ice accumulates, but this storm is very reminiscent of last February, where northeast Ga, upstate SC, and the Charlotte southside got 4 to 6" of snow (a gap developed from Asheville to Shelby, which robbed us of snow). The one thing I'm confident of , is that our temps should be a smidge colder than last year, and don't look for temps to go above freezing until around noon, when the storm is ending. The low takes a classic Winter storm track for our area. In essence, this storm has the potential to drop everything on us, and roads could be a disaster early Thursday morning....snow accumulation, then sleet accumulation, then a glaze on top. Drive safe!

Check back later for updates on a supercold weekend forecast! brrrrr.

THE FORECAST....

Wednesday...Becoming cloudy late. Highs middle 40's.

Wednesday Night...Snow developing late, around 9Pm-midnight for Cleveland/Rutherford Counties. Lows mid 20's

Thursday...Snow changes to ice around daybreak. Moderate accumulation of ice. Temps climb slowly to near 30. Drizzle and cold remainder of afternoon.