Sunday, May 15, 2011

Unsettled Week For Carolinas and East Coast

A strong upper low will pinwheel into a good spot for significant rainfall over northeast Georgia and the western Carolinas by Monday night. The models all develop a surface low that becomes stationary over the midlands of SC and piedmont region, slowly wobbling toward the Charlotte region during midday Tuesday. This will spin rainfall and east winds north of the circulation center, right into western North Carolina and the western part of Virginia, meaning heavy, steady rain will occur. The axis of 7H moisture slowly spins for 36 hours roughly, but does ebb and flow as several disturbances migrate around the main circulation over the southern Apps region. The steady rain begins over the extreme northern Upstate of SC after midnight Monday night and expands to encompass most of central and western NC by early Tuesday, pushing west across the mountain chain into eastern TN and eastern KY by midday and afternoon.
Meanwhile, Tuesday afternoon could offer the chance at some isolated pulse storms, any of which can gain enough height to produce major HAIL as the flow comes off the Appalachians and into eastern GA and the central and eastern Carolinas by Tuesday afternoon. Freezing levels will be quite low.  Temperatures could remain in the 50's all day in places like Winston Salem, Hickory and Asheville where the clouds remain in full force all day Tuesday, and possibly remaining only in the 40's in the higher elevations like Boone, Galax and Tri-Cities.
The upper low should spin most of the week while weakening each day, but at any time the instability could rise dramatically as strong surface heating occurs in any breaks in the clouds.
cold rain in the mountains and foothills dark colored region, while showers , some with hail if enough sun breaks through, late Tuesday afternoon for central/eastern Carolinas/Ga
Several inches of rain is possible in Parts of the Appalachian chain and western piedmont/foothills region of NC, VA and West Va. up into the central part of Pennsyslvania and NYC area.

No comments:

Post a Comment