Thursday, March 31, 2011

Possible Tornado Outbreak April 4th-5th in Southeast

I'm eyeing the development of a severe weather situation that the models are honing in on across the Deep South/ Tennessee Valley, Southeast and possibly lower Ohio Valley early next week. The ingredients are coming together for a classic severe weather outbreak to spread over this region, and I have zero doubt there will be twisters on the ground, but we can't draw the exact lines yet. Anywhere in the red shaded zone is my overall target and I'll fine tune later as we can narrow down the region.
The ample, unusually deep inflow off the Gulf will surge very warm dewpoints and moisture north toward a quickly developing low , and the one inhibiting ingredient which spares the Carolinas of these types of outbreaks, will be missing this time: stable low level cold air. In other words, the cool air will be totally gone, replaced entirely throughout the southern and eastern third of the nation with extremely warm and buoyant air. The trough doing the dirty work will be undergoing negative tilt as it swings toward the Southeast, and since it is a full latitude trough to begin with, and the fact that the models all develop a very strong low level jet and shearing winds with height right off the surface, mother nature's way to respond to all of this energy is to let loose with a line of twisters. This event could become a well known text book case of a severe outbreak, so stay on guard early next week

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