Southeast Winter STorm....Updated Friday Afternoon

All guidance still have the big Winter storm for the Southeast, stretching from central Texas to the Carolinas. I'm not making a call anytime soon on amounts in the Carolinas, but I do feel safe to say this will be a big event for the Deep South, in terms of Heavy Snow and for some sections a severe Icestorm.  The Upper Low responsible for our storm is still swirling off the California coast, and once it comes inland, it will get sampled much better, and allow the forecaster to make a much more exact track, but as it stands now, most models agree on the basic track from the western Gulf to the offshore region of Florida or Georgia coast, and with plenty of cold air aloft and the surface, this means a stripe of snow and ice, but we can't say exactly how much yet.
By Sunday afternoon, the moisture will be rapidly expanding in Texas, southern Arkansas, all of Louisiana, and the southern half of Mississippi, and by night it should be arriving in most of Arkansas, southern and western Tennessee, and most of Alabama, and getting very close to Atlanta. The snow will rule for places along Interstate 20 to start, including Atlanta and Birmingham, and by then heavy snow will have accumulated underneath the Upper low and strong dynamics over northwest Mississippi (just northwest of Jackson) to around the Louisiana and Arkansas border and much of the southern half of Arkansas. Some areas near southern Arkansas could get a very large snowfall from this system due to enhanced dynamics and dynamic cooling, as well as some localized areas in northern and central Texas, maybe including Dallas-Ft Worth.
After midnight, the snow will be overspreading most of the southeast bound by I-20 and I-40, west of the Carolinas, and heavy snow under excellent dynamics will probably occur in southern Tennessee south of I-40 and around the northern third of Alabama, and from Atlanta, northward toward Athens and Gainesville and the mtns of Georgia. By Monday morning, most models have the moisture heading into the western Carolinas with lighter amounts as you head northward into northern NC, and much heavier amounts toward western South Carolina.
Monday is shaping up to be a snowy day in the western Carolinas, but theres going to be some mix and ice coming into the Upstate from the south, where places like Macon and just south of Athens probably change to a potentially dangerous Ice Storm.  An area near I-20 stretching from Mississippi to Georgia could get a severe ice storm, with a band of sleet, and a band of freezing rain, since surface temperatures are forecast to be well below freezing, and the upper levels have warmed enough to change the precip from snow to freezing rain or sleet.

Liquid Equivalent Precipitation Through 12Z Monday Jan10, 2011

Some models paint about a foot of snow along Interstate 85, and other models have only 2 to 4" and yet others have around a 6" snowfall in general for the western Carolinas from Spartanburg to Hickory to Shelby and Charlotte, but again we need more time to better sample the data as it comes in tonight and Saturday.  There is little doubt though that this will be a very widespread, significant Winter Storm, and the potential is for it to be a severe Winter storm for some areas.  Check back Saturday for another full update.