Sunday, January 16, 2011

Is More Snow and Ice on the Way ?

So far, the first half of Winter (meteorlogicall speaking, begins Dec. 1st) has been a top 5 coldest on record in most of the interior Southeast for several reasons. Although the official Winter Outlooks were for warm and dry in general, we're cold and snowy (still "dry" meaning below average precip--but only because of the powdery snows). It looks like no big change from the overall cold anytime soon. In fact, the coldest air so far is covering Canada now and will begin expanding southward soon. This week offers a weak threat for some snow or ice, probably more ice, but the light variety, around western NC, especially near I-40 from Asheville to Hickory and points north.
the ECMWF model above valid at days 5 and 6.
Once this storm is out of the way, our eyes quickly turn to the Southwest, where the European model drops another storm and begins to bring it toward the Southest by later in the week. With cold, arctic high pressure all to our north, and pressing down, this will be trouble again. We still can't be sure yet if the storm will "shear" out or actually strengthen as it comes our way, but beginning sometime on late Thursday or into Friday, or generally speaking, the Thursday- Saturday timeframe could get snowy or icy, or BOTH, depending on where you are in Tennessee, the Carolinas, Alabama and Georgia. The overall setup depicted lately on the European model is a wintry one, with a healthy ice storm, perhaps a major one, but we need more time to get a better idea of who gets what.  Following the storm, theres little doubt we get extremely cold again, as if it hasn't been cold enough. There's also several more systems lined up beyond this one. This is turning out to be a Winter of the Ages in part of the Southeast.

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