Final Full Update on Impending Winter Storm

It's coming, like it or not. In geographic coverage and actual impact, this upcoming storm could be the most substantial Winter Storm since the 1996 storm, and for some areas of the mid and deep South, surpass that. The snow should overspread the South from the southwest to northeast from this point on, and reach the western Carolinas between 1 and 4 AM.  All the short range models have caught on to a strengthening trend the moisture flux and rates, and with cold air sitting so unusually far south, thanks to a blocking pattern in existence over a month now, the precip will take the form of snow and ice depending on location.
The heaviest snow bands should occur under the broad but strong lift over the Tennessee Valley, possibly northern Mississippi/Memphis areas, and again along the Smokies and eastern ridges of the Southern Appalachians.  Aloft, the snow will be changing to sleet and then freezing rain, from south to north, but once into the western Carolinas and most of Tennessee, the depth of the tenacious cold air could be deep enough to hold on to snow for most of the storm. Places in and around Atlanta will have several hours of snow before the changeover to mix and the northern suburbs will fight back and forth between all snow and sleet for a while, depending on the exact placement of the incoming warm air aloft. Further northeast into the Western Carolinas and extreme northeast Georgia,  the southeasterly flow at 850 throughout the event actually helps to keep the column cold for most of the event through diabatic cooling and upslope. The cold air during the first half of the storm there should enhance snow ratios, with the 850 dropping to -6 for the first half of the event.
All the models have come markedly north in the last few runs but the trend is to strengthen the moisture flux and dynamics aloft associated with the decaying upper feature.  As the surface low begins to redevelop off the coast of Georgia, this will keep moist low level air and pockets of some sleet, but mostly freezing drizzle for several hours after the heart of the storm. It remains to be seen exactly how far north the coastal gets before it gets energized by the incoming trailing channelled vort across the upper Tennessee Valley by Tuesday, but indications are its going to be a close call for a strong Nor'easter Development that would impact the East Coast with another major Winter storm.

Following the storm, the Southeast turns bitter cold. With snowpack on the ground and a 1040mb arctic high settling in for the duration of the week, look for record or near record cold temps across the South, with some areas approaching zero, even outside the mountains.

Local Forecast for the Western Carolinas and Northeast Georgia:
Snow developing overnight and becoming heavy around daybreak from Charlotte, west. Highs mid 20's.
Monday Night...snow changing to sleet and freezing rain and freezing drizzle most locations. Temperatures holding steady in the 20's.

*Chaos Factor
Every storm has its own areas of unknown, like high snow rates, convection, localized terrain enhancement, meso scale banding, dry slotting, earlier mixing and change-over,  and deviations that a forecaster can't exactly account for on the smoothed over genral map. Mine won't be any different and should be used for general purposes only. Some areas won't get what I'm predicting, and other areas will exceed my map totals.