Rainy Day and Night Coming up...Then Colder and hmm...Snow next week?

First we have to get through today and tonight. A line of severe weather is developing and already tornado watch boxes are up to the South of western North Carolina. Our cold northeast winds will gradually switch to the southeast and south later this evening, putting most of Cleveland County into the warm, unstable air. Be alert this evening as some parameters could come together to give our region another taste of severe weather, with all the ingredients in place for some weak tornadoes to form close by. In addition, heavy rain will sweep across the county as the evening and overnight wears on.
By Wednesday, the front clears out and we begin turning colder. This is the beginnning of a different pattern, and a "Greenland" block is forecast to form and hold sway, which means the eastern United States will turn colder for a while. As you go out toward 5 days and beyond, several models have a new low coming into California and taking a southern track. The GFS model dampens out this feature, but enough ensembles and the ECMWF model keep the southern storm in tact, and sweep a snowstorm across Dixie in about 7 to 9 days from now. For now, its just something to watch. I wouldn't expect any model to have all the atmospheric features placed properly yet, but the one thing to expect for certain is that colder air is coming in time to put you in the Holiday Spirit...no more 70's for a while.

If the models continue to show our first threat of snow or ice for next week, check back here.
Below is the ECMWF 500MB heights showing the storm in question , as it tracks across the southern states. Normally, a split flow system, with blocking in parts of Canada or Greenland, is how the Carolinas and northern Georgia see snow. We'll see if this map is realistic soon enough.