Monday, March 1, 2010

Still hard to pinpoint the big Winning Snowzone

My thoughts still stand from earlier. One look at the water vapor satellite shows this upper low is substantially further north than any models shown for this time period. Its currently situated in central Lousiana. What is supposed to happen is that the closed low becomes elongated and "negative tilting" once it reaches western Alabama, which is rare.Very rare, and would place northern Georgia to northern Alabama in a solid shield of increasingly heavy snowfall. Further east and north into the Asheville and Shelby to Charlotte region, we are still looking more and more like we'll end up being under this same heavy snow band sometime Tuesday as the whole system rotates through Georgia. However, someone on the northern and western edges are going to be cut off, meaning theres a sharp gradient between extremely heavy snows and just flurries. Just like the February 2004 storm and the one in March 1983. Notice those storms below:


The rapid update cycle models (the ones that nailed the Dec. 2009 mega snowstorm in western NC , and our snow event Valetines Weekend) are coming even further north now, placing us directly in the heart of the heavy snow, straight across to the northern Atlanta Suburbs and near Birmingham.  This will be the model to continue to watch tonight, but the event is about to start, so it really comes down to seeing how the radar looks in the morning.
Heres a satellite pic and where I think the heaviest snow bands setup on Tuesday.  Amounts could range anywhere from a couple inches up to 10" in areas that get under steady slow moving snowbands and some thunderstorms. An amazing setup, that will have some surprises!

2 comments:

  1. Thank you so much for this thought provoking analysis. I believe you have a better handle on this storm than the GFS/NAM. This storm is turning into a nailbiter. Part of the fun of living in NC. :D

    ReplyDelete
  2. Robert, As usual, your logic and expertise shines through! I look forward to Tuesday with such positive anticipation. Thank you.
    Vann Helms

    ReplyDelete